地點：伟德平台怎么样沙河校區主教102M

時間: 2018年10月20日

上午8:30-9:45

張轶凡(香港中文大學)

講座題目：Moving“Umbrella”: Bureaucratic Transfers, Collusion, and Rent-seeking in China

摘要：The collusion between firms and government o?cials is ubiquitous but hard to empirically assess. This paper studies collusion by tracing the pattern of intercity investments after political turnovers. Exploring the feature of bureaucratic transfers in China and using a unique firm registry data, this paper documents a significant increase of new investments with a close tie to the moving leaders’ previous jurisdiction. Further empirical investigations find evidence consistent with collusion between leaders and firms: First, new registrations tying to moving leaders concentrate in high-renting sectors. Second, the firms tying to moving leaders have a higher survival rate provided that their patrons stayed in the same jurisdictions, but those firms are more likely to exit local markets once the patrons left. Thirdly, the connected firms tend to crowd out new entries and dampen innovation. And lastly, career-concerned motives seem to mitigate collusion.

主講人簡介： 張轶凡，香港中文大學經濟系副教授。中國人民大學經濟學學士、碩士，美國匹茲堡大學經濟學博士，并在美國耶魯大學從事博士後研究。兼任世界銀行、亞洲開發銀行咨詢顧問和美國康奈爾大學中國經濟研究中心研究員。研究興趣包括國際貿易、産業組織和發展經濟學等。研究成果發表于American Economic Review, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of International Economics等國際知名期刊。

上午9:45-11:00

劉沖(北京大學)

講座題目： The Impacts of the Three Gorges Dam on Climate Change and Agricultural Production: Are there Long-run Adaptations?

摘要:Can man-made megaprojects, such as hydroelectric dams, cause permanent climate change by dramatically altering natural landscapes? Using a difference-in-differences empirical design,we confirm that the Three Gorges Dam, the largest hydroelectric dam in the world, has increased the air temperature in the reservoir region and caused an unexpected decrease in precipitation in the vast downstream region along the Yangtze River. This decline in precipitation has negatively affected the crop yields of rice in the downstream region, which is the main grain grown in this area. However, farmers’ adaptation to this long-run climate shock has been limited and slow. Instead of enhancing economic efficiency by switching to drought-resistant crops, engaging in non-farm employment or mechanizing production, they have chosen to significantly increase short-run factor inputs, such as land, labor and irrigation expenditures, in order to maintain their output of rice. As a result, the decrease in rice yields persists and has not recovered 10 years after the dam’s construction.

主講人簡介：劉沖, 男，山東人，1984年11月出生，北京大學經濟學院助理教授，世界銀行短期顧問。北京大學數學與經濟學雙學位（2007）、北京大學光華管理學院應用經濟學博士（2013）、清華經濟管理學院博士後（2015）。研究領域為公共經濟學、發展經濟學和政治經濟學。研究興趣包括公共經濟學，發展經濟學，政治經濟學，應用微觀經濟學等,近年來在Economic Journal、International Journal of Industrial Organization、《經濟研究》、《經濟學（季刊）》、《世界經濟》、《金融研究》等國内外著名期刊發表論文20多篇。先後主持國家自然科學基金、農業部農村經濟研究中心研究基金等多項科研課題。

上午11:00-12:15

戴覓(北京師範大學)

講座題目： 需求與中國出口企業動态

摘要：本文采用2000-2011年微觀層面的海關貿易數據考察中國出口企業在進入出口市場後的動态表現，并從需求角度解釋企業出口的動态調整。通過比較同一企業-産品組合在不同市場的出口表現，本文能夠識别出需求因素對于出口動态的影響。結果顯示，随着對某市場出口年齡的增加，企業出口體現出以下動态特征：（1）退出率逐漸降低（2）出口數量不斷增加，但增長率逐漸下降。（3）出口價格不斷下降。（4）出口數量和出口價格變化的波動性減小。這些典型事實與基于需求學習解釋企業出口動态的理論模型一緻，而與基于消費者積累的理論模型相左。本文研究意味着在出口過程中對目的國市場需求的逐漸學習是驅動中國出口動态調整的重要因素。

主講人簡介：北京師範大學經濟與工商管理學院副教授。美國哥倫比亞大學、美聯儲紐約銀行訪問學者。2013年畢業于北京大學國家發展研究院，主要研究方向為國際貿易與發展經濟學。研究成果發表于Journal of International Economics, Journal of Development Economics, The World Economy 等國際期刊以及《管理世界》、《經濟學（季刊）》、《世界經濟》等中文期刊。研究成果獲得18屆“安子介國際貿易研究優秀論文獎”。

下午2:00-3:15

紀珽 (伟德平台怎么样)

講座題目：Quantifying the "Pollution Haven": an Existing Effect but an Unsupported Hypothesis

摘要:We develop a full-_edged general equilibrium trade model with pollution as a by-product of production. We discipline it with standard parameters from established trade and environment literature, which are estimated from real dataper se. Our quantitative evaluation based on the model suggests that provided with an observable existence of thePollution Haven Effect, thePollution Haven Hypothesisis still unsupported because environmental policy stringency, as a determinant of pollution and abatement, is weak relative to other conventional sources of comparative advantages and does not fundamentally determine international division of labor. However, a reduction in trade costs would induce more world overall pollution just as the PHH predicts, but it is not a result of environmental policy stringency but simply because of re-organization of production across borders due to other comparative advantage forces.

主講人簡介：伟德平台怎么样助理教授,清華大學本科, 加利福尼亞大學洛杉矶分校(UCLA)經濟學博士學位, 研究成果發表于Journal of African Economies等國際期刊, 主持國家自然科學基金青年項目一項。

下午3:15-4:30

顔色(北京大學)

講座題目：Elite or State: Grain Prices, Social Conflicts and Public Goods Provision in Eighteenth-Century China

摘要: State and community shape a society together. This paper documents and compares the function of the government and local elites in stabilizing fluctuations in grain prices in eighteenth-century China. Narrative evidence suggests that, while the government provided public goods including the ever-normal granary system, the elites also participated in multiple ways, including leading water project constructions, managing private granaries, and providing social relief. However, few studies have quantitatively compared the importance of these two players. We construct a prefecture-level panel data from 1742 to 1795 to examine the effect of the official granary system versus local elites. Preliminary results show that the effects differed across the country. While the government played a dominant role in the North, the elites effectively reduced price fluctuations in the Lower Yangzi.

主講人簡介：顔色于2008年在加利福尼亞大學洛杉矶分校(UCLA)獲得經濟學博士學位，随後加入了北京大學光華管理學院。他目前是應用經濟系的研究教授。在此之前，他在北京大學分别獲得國際經濟學士學位和經濟史碩士學位。顔色博士的研究專長在于經濟史、發展經濟學、宏觀經濟學和中國經濟問題。顔色博士的研究獲得國内外同行的關注。他的博士論文《Real Wages and Skill Premia in China, 1860 to 1936》獲得第十五屆世界經濟史大會最佳博士論文獎，這是中國學者首次獲此殊榮。他的論文發表在國内外著名學術期刊如“International Economic Review”、“Explorations in Economic History”、《經濟研究》、《管理世界》、《經濟學季刊》等。他的研究獲得美國國家自然科學基金、中國國家社科基金和教育部人文社科基金的資助。他還作為主持人承擔了國家重修清史項目《清史?對外貿易志》的科研項目。他擔任SSCI期刊“Australian Economic History Review”的副編審。在光華管理學院，顔色主要從事本科、MBA的《宏觀經濟學》、《中國經濟專題》和博士生的《經濟增長專題》、《經濟史專題》以及國際合作部、高層培訓項目等課程的教學工作。他曾經獲得北京大學教學優秀獎和光華管理學院教學一等獎。

下午4:30-5:45

樊海潮(複旦大學)

講座題目：FDI to Elude

摘要: How does domestic tax affect firms’ outward FDI (OFDI) decisions?

We address this question via a model in which firms of heterogeneous productivity make a choice between exporting and OFDI. We exploit a policy change in China that unifies corporate income tax rates through raising foreign firms’ but reducing domestic firms’ tax rates. Using a difference-in-differences estimator that compares the OFDI of foreign and domestic firms before and after the tax unification, we find that a higher corporate income tax rate increases the probability of firm OFDI. The facts that few destinations are tax havens and firms reduced domestic investment in China suggest that the OFDI decisions reflect firms’ capital relocation instead of profits shifting overseas.

主講人簡介：複旦大學經濟學院副教授，香港科技大學經濟學博士,多篇論文發表于國際一流期刊如Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, Journal of International Economics (同期兩篇), Journal of Development Economics等。

本系列講座獲得2018年伟德平台怎么样專題學術講座項目資助。