主題：The Natural Rate of Interest and Structural Change

主講嘉賓：王彬，暨南大學副教授

時間：2024年5月29日（周三）10:00-11:30

地點：伟德平台怎么样沙河校區學院樓13号樓301

主持人：段玉婉 教授 伟德平台怎么样副院長

評論人：劉韬 副教授

主辦：伟德平台怎么样、北京高校國際商務專業虛拟教研室

内容簡介：

Last three decades have witnessed two phenominal stylized facts in the developed world: the natural rate of interest is trending down; the economy undergoes structural change from agriculture and manufacture to service. Do these two trends have any theoretical relations? This paper answers this question and finds that the natural rate of interest is declining if the economy undergoes stuctural change, e.g. the change from manufacture to service happening in our world. First, we construct these two stylized facts and explore their correlation. The higher the ratio of serivice to manufacture is, the lower the natural rate of interest is. Second, we construct a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. We find that the change of final goods (consumption) share is a sufficient statistics for the declining natural rate if sectors are compliments and the growth rates of sectoral technologies are different. Once there is structural change in terms of final goods share change, the natural rate goes down. The mechanism behind the model is that the sector with lower growth rate becomes larger (higher service share in reality), and then the TFP goes down which results in the lower equilibrium interest rate.

主講人簡介：

王彬，暨南大學經濟學院副教授，博士畢業于香港城市大學，研究方向為宏觀經濟學、國際金融以及政治經濟學。論文發表于Macroeconomic Dynamics, Journal of Comparative Economics, Journal of International Money and Finance等期刊。