講座題目：Firm Demographics and the Great Recession

主講人：吳沛凡

講座時間：2017年7月5日（周三）上午10：00-11:30

講座地點：伟德平台怎么样學院南路校區主教113教室

主講人簡介：

吳沛凡，紐約大學Stern商學院經濟學博士候選人。本科畢業于清華大學經管學院，獲經濟學/數學雙學位。主要研究領域為企業動态、宏觀經濟學、金融中介。

Abstract：

The last U.S. recession stands out not only for its depth, but also for the rather slow recovery that followed it. What is less well known is that the number of productive units also dropped substantially, while it barely budged in occasion of the 1981 recession, and kept increasing during the 1991 and 2001 recessions. To the extent that the stock of establishments is a very slow–moving variable, a recession characterized by an unusually large drop in establishments will necessarily be followed by a slow recovery. In order to evaluate the quantitative significance of this mechanism, we build a general equilibrium business cycle model with heterogenous firms and endogenous entry and exit, and calibrate it so that the implied unconditional average firm–level and aggregate dynamics are consistent with the empirical evidence. Preliminary results show that recessions characterized by a sizeable drop in entry rates stand out along two dimensions: (1) The response of output in hump-shaped, meaning that output can diverge from trend for years following a negative mean–reverting shock; (2) The recovery is substantially slower.