講座題目：The multilateral nature of bilateral trade in the age of global value chains

主講人：祝坤福（對外經濟貿易大學全球價值鍊研究院）

講座時間：2018年5月23日（周三）中午12: 30－13：45

講座地點：伟德平台怎么样學院南路校區主教702

摘要： The gross trade accounting method proposed by Koopman, Wang and Wei (2014) and Wang, Wei and Zhu (2013) that breaks up gross exports into various value-added components by source and additional double counted terms. In this paper, we apply the gross trade accounting method to analyze third countries’ effect in bilateral trade. We decompose gross bilateral trade flows into different value-added and double counted components among 62 trade nations in 34 sectors from 1995 to 2014 on OECD-ICIO database, which taking processing trade into account, and discuss their relationship with GDP statistics. We not only reveal the misleading nature of bilateral balance of trade computed from gross trade statistics but also the sources of such a statistical illusion. This implies that net bilateral imports no longer be a uniform measure for import penetration as the time when final good trade dominate, since its value-added structure can vary significantly across country/sector and bilateral routes in the age of global value chains. It also implies that any bilateral trade policy change will have a third country effect that policy maker cannot overlook.

主講人簡介：祝坤福，對外經濟貿易大學全球價值鍊研究院副研究員。博士畢業于中國科學院數學與系統科學研究院。主要研究内容為投入産出技術、全球價值鍊、貿易與能源環境分析。研究成果發表于《Journalof Comparative Economics》、《Energy Economics》、《Economic Systems Research》、《China Economic Review》、《中國社會科學》、《經濟研究》等國内外領先期刊發表論文30餘篇，主持完成國家自然科學基金項目多項；研究成果榮獲第十三屆“孫冶方經濟科學獎”，第二屆“張培剛發展經濟學研究優秀成果獎” 和第十九屆“安子介國際貿易獎”（論文一等獎）。

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