講座題目：Stronger Protest or Bigger Bluffing? Quantifying the Impacts of Sino-Japanese Diplomatic Tensions on Trade

主 講 人：崔靜波（武漢大學經濟與管理學院副教授）

講座時間：2018年9月26日（周三）中午12: 30－13：45

講座地點：伟德平台怎么样學院南路校區主教702會議室

主講人簡介：數理經濟與數理金融系副主任，湖北省楚天學者人才計劃。2012年6月畢業于美國愛荷華州立大學經濟學系，獲經濟學博士學位。曾擔任愛荷華州立大學經濟學系博士後、訪問助理教授。研究方向：環境經濟學、創新、國際貿易。研究成果已發表在AEA Papers and Proceedings,American Journal of Agricultural Economics,Energy Economics,Journal of International Trade and Economic Development等。主持國家自然科學基金青年項目和應急項目（子課題負責人）。擔任環境經濟學國際頂級學術期刊JEEM, JAERE以及國内權威學術期刊《中國工業經濟》、《經濟學（季刊）》等匿名審稿人。

摘要： This paper studies the impacts of the Sino-Japanese political tensions on bilateral trade. Using a detailed dataset on daily political events between China and Japan from 1995 to 2012, we examine whether stronger diplomatic expressions triggered by non-military tensions are associated with larger loss in trade. First we construct a diplomatic tension index incorporating the heterogeneity of language responses and event types, and then we run a gravity model of China with its trade partners to test the effect of tensions. The empirical results first show that in the period with tense Sino- Japanese frictions, total exports to Japan experience a significant reduction, whereas the political effects on total imports to China are less pronounced. We also disentangle the short-run and long-run impacts of political interactions on trade, which reveals that better diplomatic relation does mean higher trade in the long-run. In addition, we check separately the impacts of weak and strong responses, and find that strong responses are significantly more destructive than weak responses in terms of Chinese imports. Last but not the least, several industries are identified as most fragile to tensions between China and Japan. Our work sheds light on the influence of diplomatic frictions on interstate trade in a relatively peaceful international environment.

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