講座題目：SILVER: COMMODITY AND/OR MONEY? Evidence from China 1890-1936

主 講 人：謝一青助理教授（複旦大學經濟學院）

講座時間：2018年10月10日（周三）晚18:00-19:30

講座地點：伟德平台怎么样學院南路校區主教702會議室

主講人簡介：謝一青博士，畢業于美國科羅拉多大學博爾德分校，師從James R. Markusen，複旦大學經濟學院助理教授，現任複旦大學世界經濟系副系主任、複旦大學經濟-成均館中國大學院項目主管。專長于國際經濟學，産業組織和發展經濟學研究。擔任Journal of Economic History，Oxford Economic Papers，Economic Inquiry，World Economy，以及《世界經濟》等學術期刊的匿名審稿人。主要論文發表于Southern Economic Journal, International Journal of Economic Theory,《世界經濟》等。

摘要：We clarify the silver outflow and depression puzzle in China between 1933 and 1935 by bringing the effect of international trade into a long-run analysis from 1890 to 1936. When foreign countries treated silver as a commodity before 1931, silver appreciation was accompanied by a decrease in silver outflow, while the improvement of terms of trade increased the silver outflow. When foreign countries treated silver as money after they abandoned the gold standard, silver appreciation caused more silver outflow, and the improvement of terms of trade magnified the outflow. Silver appreciation led to an improvement in terms of trade, and further increased China’s trade balance. However, the trade balance increase was caused by a decrease of exports outweighed by an even larger decrease of imports. And therefore, China’s GDP per capita worsened accordingly. We also find empirical supports from the Chinese bank data from 1912 to 1931 that an improvement in terms of trade and/or a higher net silver outflow made the banks perform worse.

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