講座主題：Navigating Geopolitical Crises for Energy Security: Evaluating Optimal Subsidy Policies

主講嘉賓：趙泓，南開大學經濟學院副教授

時間：2023年11月23日（周四）9:30~11:30

地點：伟德平台怎么样沙河校區二教207

主持人：苗壯 助理教授

點評人：梅冬州 教授

主辦：伟德平台怎么样

緻謝: 本講座獲得2023年伟德平台怎么样專題學術講座資助計劃支持

講座内容：

Recent geopolitical crises, exemplified by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, have underscored the vulnerability of nations heavily reliant on a solitary energy source or supplier, thereby emphasizing the imperative of energy resilience. However, existing integrated assessment models for environmental evaluation fail to adequately consider the environmental and economic impacts of geopolitical conflicts and do not sufficiently prioritize the significance of energy resilience in policymaking. This paper introduces a Markov switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (MS-DSGE) model to examine these concerns. The findings illustrate that such disruptions precipitate a substantial decline in output, social welfare, and energy consumption. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mere anticipation of an energy cri- sis influences household behaviors, leading to a reduction in energy, output, and consumption volatility, while concurrently increasing volatility in social welfare. To tackle these challenges, this paper proposes an optimal subsidy policy that incorporates energy resilience considerations. We establish that this policy should be contingent upon productivity levels, energy imports, and the economy’s responsiveness to economic shocks. Additionally, we demonstrate that the policy should be adaptable to prevailing economic conditions and the likelihood of an upcoming crisis.

嘉賓簡介：

趙泓，南開大學經濟學院副教授。博士畢業于加拿大麥吉爾大學，研究方向：開放宏觀經濟學，環境經濟學。研究成果發表在國際權威期刊，Journal of International Economics (獨立作者), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Journal of Economic Survey, International Review of Financial Analysis, Economic Modelling等。主持國家自然科學基金青年科學基金項目。