講座主題：Beyond Trade Sector: Measurement and Effects of the Trade War

主講嘉賓：劉沖，北京大學經濟學院長聘副教授。

時間：2023年11月30日（周四）9:00-10:30

地點：伟德平台怎么样沙河校區二教207

主辦：伟德平台怎么样

緻謝: 本講座獲得2023年伟德平台怎么样專題學術講座資助計劃支持

講座内容：

This study develops a text-based measure of Chinese listed firms' international trade exposure (textual trade exposure or TTE) using 12,325 earnings conference transcripts from 2006 to 2019. We then employ the TTE measure to investigate the impact of the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war on Chinese firms. Our measure effectively captures the financial repercussions of the trade war, as evidenced by the fact that firms with one standard deviation higher TTE experienced a 0.20% larger decline in market values around the announcement of increased tariffs. Additionally, our approach has a unique advantage in measuring the effects on domestic market firms that do not directly engage in international trade but are affected through the supply chain. Surprisingly, we find a positive effect on short-term profits and sales for high TTE firms after the trade war. Further heterogeneity analysis confirms that this positive effect is solely driven by domestic market firms. Following the trade war, export-oriented firms turned to domestic suppliers for purchasing materials and services, leading to an expansion in the scale of the latter.

嘉賓簡介：

劉沖，北京大學博雅青年學者，長聘副教授，博士生導師，國家級高層次青年人才計劃入選者，世界銀行研究顧問。研究領域為公共經濟學、發展經濟學和大數據應用。近年來在Economic Journal、《經濟研究》、《管理世界》、《世界經濟》等國内外權威期刊發表論文數十篇。主持國家社科基金重大研究專項、國家自然科學基金等課題。榮獲霍英東高等院校青年教師獎、洪銀興經濟學獎（青年）、商務發展研究成果獎等榮譽。